Anies, a Presidential Candidate on the Decline

LSI Denny JA polled 1,200 people across Indonesia and discovered that Prabowo Subianto is still the most popular candidate, followed by Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. The survey has a margin of error of 2.9% and was performed through face-to-face interviews from September 4 - 12.

LSI Denny JA supplemented their research with quantitative and qualitative methodologies such as media analysis and expert evaluation.

According to a nationwide poll, the top three presidential contenders are as follows in terms of electability:

• Prabowo Subianto: 39.8%

• Ganjar Pranowo: 37.9%

• Anies Baswedan: 14.5%

Prabowo Subianto remains the leader, followed by Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. Prabowo's electability increased by 14.4% since January 2023, whereas Ganjar's and Anies' electability increased by 0.1% and 7.6%, respectively.

Anies Baswedan's electability dropped the most, by 5.2%, after declaring Muhaimin Iskandar as his vice presidential candidate.

Analysis

Even if his electability decreased in August 2023, Prabowo Subianto remains ahead in this poll. Ganjar Pranowo has recovered from his setback and is presently in second place. Anies Baswedan's electability has declined, and it is unclear whether he will be able to rebound.

The drop in Anies Baswedan's electability following the announcement of Muhaimin Iskandar as his vice presidential candidate demonstrates that this had a negative impact on him. However, Anies has plenty of time to improve his electability before the 2024 presidential race.

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Archipelago Insight, 2023