The Electability Gap between Prabowo and Ganjar is Widening

The latest survey by LSI Denny JA on the 2023 Indonesian presidential election shows that Prabowo Subianto is currently leading with a double-digit margin over his closest rival, Ganjar Pranowo. The survey was conducted face-to-face with 1,200 respondents across Indonesia, with a margin of error of 2.9%. In the head-to-head simulation, Prabowo leads Ganjar by 10.4%, with Prabowo's electability at 52% and Ganjar's at 41.6%.

The survey also shows that Prabowo is leading among voters from almost all political parties, except for PDIP supporters who are more likely to support Ganjar. Among Muslim voters, Prabowo has a 54.7% electability, while Ganjar has 38.9%. On the other hand, among non-Muslim voters, Ganjar is leading with a 62.6% electability, while Prabowo only has 30.9%.

When it comes to gender, Prabowo leads among both male and female voters, with 53% and 51.1% electability respectively. The survey also shows that Prabowo is leading in three of the five largest provinces in Indonesia: West Java, East Java, and Banten. In Jawa Tengah and DKI Jakarta, Ganjar has a higher electability.

In terms of geography, Ganjar is leading in Jawa, which includes all provinces on the island of Java, with a slight margin of 0.1%. Meanwhile, Prabowo is leading in Sumatera, Indonesia's central region, and Bali-NTB-NTT. Ganjar is leading in Indonesia Timur, which includes all provinces in Maluku and Papua.

The survey also reveals that the majority of respondents believe that the economy is the most important issue for the next president to address. Other important issues include health care, education, and infrastructure development. The majority of respondents also believe that the next president should prioritize national unity and religious tolerance.

Overall, the survey suggests that Prabowo has a strong chance of winning the election if the current trend continues. However, it is still several months away from the election, and anything can happen between now and then.
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Archipelago Insight, 2023