Why is Jokowi still very popular at the end of his term in office?

The issue of change that is being promoted by the Anies Baswedan presidential coalition is not echoing strongly. This contributes to Anies' electability, which is still behind by double digits (over 10 percent) compared to Ganjar Pranowo's electability, let alone Prabowo Subianto's. But why isn't the issue of change echoing? The answer is the law of political iron. The issue of change only echoes if the incumbent president is not popular.

Consequently, the general public desires a new, distinct, and altered atmosphere. On the other hand, if the incumbent president enjoys widespread support, the public favors maintaining the status quo. What resonates with the majority of electors is not the issue of change, but rather the issue of stability. Continue onward. Go forward! At the conclusion of his term, Jokowi's popularity remains high.

As the 17th of August approaches, his approval rating for his performance as president is still quite high, hovering around 80 percent. According to a recent survey by LSI Denny JA, this is the case. In LSI Denny JA's survey conducted between January, March, April, May, June, and July of 2023, Jokowi's satisfaction rating for his performance ranged between 79 and 82%. That is a very high measure of contentment.

Those who are cognizant of this information will not advocate for change. What should be promoted is the "Jokowi Effect," which is the effect of closeness with Jokowi and continuation of Jokowi's essential programs. What factors contribute to Jokowi's continued popularity at the conclusion of his term? It is a combination of his performance and his character. Concerning Jokowi's performance, his programs, including the Healthy Indonesia Card, Smart Indonesia Card, Downstreaming, IKN (the new capital city), and infrastructure - must be discussed separately, including their merits and cons.

Here, we will focus solely on one aspect: Jokowi's public persona. Evident are Jokowi's modest appearance, familiarity with the people, outreach, and contribution.

The Meeting

End of July 2023, on a Sunday afternoon, I received a WhatsApp message from the President's aide. He advised me that the President desired a meeting. I went to Merdeka Palace on Sunday. The place had a palace-like ambience despite its tranquility. I was driven in a golf cart from a special entrance to where Jokowi was.

Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia, reclined comfortably at the end of a long table.

His contrition was evident from the first word he uttered. "I apologize for disrupting your vacation, Mas Denny. I requested a check to determine if you were out of town today."

I responded, "Oh no, sir, it doesn't concern me at all. It is a privilege to receive a phone call from the president."

It was Sunday at the time. Jokowi appeared casual and was not dressed formally. We simply conversed informally. His politeness, gentleness, and emotional intelligence were evident. Jokowi posed additional queries. A few times, he took notes during our conversation. We spoke alone for approximately 45 minutes.

During our conversation, I offered a comment. "When you complete your term in 2024, Mr. President will be 63 years old and still very youthful. And you remain immensely popular. It is extremely uncommon for a president to leave office with an approval rating above 80 percent in Indonesia or anywhere else in the globe."

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Jokowi's Approval Rating

Standard research language in public opinion surveys is approval rating. Approval rating indicates the proportion of poll respondents who approve of a particular individual or program. In Indonesian surveys, concur or disagree is frequently replaced with satisfied or dissatisfied. In 1937, George Gallup conducted the first survey of a president's approval rating in the United States.

Gallup Organization was established in 1935 by the famous American pollster George Gallup. Considered the father of contemporary public opinion surveying. In 1945, Franklin D. Roosevelt had the highest approval rating for a president at the end of their tenure in office, at 90%. Roosevelt was president during World War II, and after the victory of the Allies, his approval rating skyrocketed. In 1952, Harry Truman had the lowest approval rating for a president leaving office in the United States, with 22%. Truman was president during the Korean conflict, and as the conflict dragged on, so did his approval rating.

There are numerous factors that can influence a president's approval rating, such as economic conditions, foreign policy events, and the president's personality. For instance, presidents' approval ratings tend to be higher when the economy is doing well and lower when the economy is doing terribly. Traditionally, presidents of Indonesia conclude their terms poorly.

Bung Karno was ousted from authority. Pak Harto was ousted from office. The report of President Habibie was denied by MPR. Gus Dur fell from authority as well. SBY defeated Megawati in the election for president and was subsequently re-elected. And SBY's declining popularity at the conclusion of his tenure led to a decline in Democratic Party votes in the 2014 election.

Jokowi broke with the precedent of previous Indonesian presidents. He is truly quite well-liked at the conclusion of his term in office.

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In his state address on August 16, 2023 at the MPR/DPR/DPD building, Jokowi stated: "I am aware that some people claim I am stupid, plonga-plongo (a slang term for someone who is clueless), don't know anything, Pharaoh, and stupid. It's alright; I accept it as an individual."

"However, what saddens me the most is that our nation's culture of decorum and noble character appears to be fading? "Hatred and slander are expressed via freedom and democracy."

"Pollution in this cultural area severely damages Indonesia's aristocratic reputation," he said."

May Jokowi remain humble, unaffected by criticism, uncomplicated, and popular until the end of his term. This will establish a new custom for Indonesian presidents.

We should distance ourselves from the sentiments expressed by Kahlil Gibran in his poem, The Garden of the Prophet: "Pity the nation that welcomes its new ruler with trumpetings, and farewells him with hootings, only to welcome another with trumpetings again."

Jokowi's continued popularity at the end of his term is a positive precedent for future Indonesian presidents to follow.

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Denny JA, 2023